As the calendar turns to a new month, the tech media landscape becomes inundated with a familiar wave of articles, all seemingly inspired by a single chart from Statcounter Global Stats. This recurring phenomenon sees various outlets churning out content that attempts to interpret the latest trends in operating system usage, particularly focusing on the fluctuating popularity of Windows 10 and Windows 11.
This month, the spotlight is on the sharp decline of Windows 10, represented by a prominent purple line, while Windows 11, depicted in blue, appears to be regaining traction. A quick glance at Google News reveals an array of articles already attempting to dissect these changes, with more undoubtedly on the horizon.
Among the more eye-catching claims comes from Forbes, which boldly states that “the January stats are now out, and according to Statcounter, the Windows 11 upgrade trend has now un-reversed itself … some 40 million hold-outs have suddenly upgraded their PCs in the last 31 days.” Such assertions inevitably lead to questions about the validity of these trends. A more prudent inquiry might be, “Did this actually happen?” followed closely by, “Are we sure?” and “What does this data truly signify?”
The reality is that while Statcounter’s reports provide a convenient backdrop for monthly tech narratives, they often reflect only a superficial connection to the actual market dynamics. Many of the month-to-month variations are likely nothing more than statistical noise.
Understanding the Data
To illustrate this point, consider a chart I created using Statcounter data spanning from January 2022 to January 2025, focused solely on the United States. By incorporating third-order polynomial trendlines, I was able to smooth out the statistical fluctuations and reveal a clearer picture of the underlying trends. The results tell a different story: while pageviews from Windows 10 devices are on a steady decline, those from Windows 11 are gradually increasing, despite occasional data irregularities.
It’s essential to note that Statcounter’s data is based on pageviews rather than visits or sessions, which can skew the interpretation of market share. For instance, if one user visits five pages on a Windows 11 PC and another visits ten pages on a Windows 10 machine, Statcounter’s metrics would inaccurately suggest that Windows 10 is twice as popular.
Who is Statcounter?
Founded in 1999, Statcounter is a web analytics company based in Ireland, initially thriving by counting website hits through a tracking pixel embedded by clients. However, its customer base has dwindled significantly over the years, from 3 million in 2009 to just 1.5 million by 2022. This decline reflects a broader trend, as dominant players like Google Analytics have captured the majority of the market share.
Where Do Statcounter’s Numbers Come From?
Statcounter aggregates pageviews from a diverse range of small to medium-sized websites. However, its data collection capabilities have diminished dramatically, with monthly pageviews dropping from over 17 billion a decade ago to just 5 billion by 2022. This limited scope means that Statcounter’s insights may not accurately represent broader web traffic trends, particularly as it cannot account for visits to major sites like Google or Facebook.
So, What’s the Real Story?
While Statcounter’s data can provide insights into the behavior of users on its client websites, it does not accurately reflect the overall market share of Windows operating systems. The trends observed indicate a slow decline in traffic from Windows 10 devices and a gradual increase from Windows 11 machines, but these figures do not necessarily correlate with the global population of PCs.
As the end of support for Windows 10 approaches in October 2025, a significant number of devices will remain unable to upgrade to Windows 11. Without access to comprehensive telemetry data from Microsoft, the true landscape of operating system usage remains a matter of speculation. Thus, while Statcounter’s reports can spark discussions, they should be approached with caution and a critical eye.
