As the calendar turns each month, a familiar pattern emerges in the tech journalism landscape. Numerous publications release articles that echo one another, all drawing from a singular chart crafted by Statcounter Global Stats. The latest iteration of this chart, which encapsulates data from the year ending June 30, 2025, has once again sparked a flurry of analysis and commentary.
This month, the spotlight is on the apparent decline of Windows 10, represented by the purple line, juxtaposed with the resurgence of Windows 11, depicted by the blue line. The challenge for commentators has been to decipher this shift in market dynamics. A quick glance at the headlines reveals a mix of excitement and confusion, with phrases like “Windows 11 is surging!” and “finally caught up with Windows 10!” dominating the narrative.
Among the more colorful interpretations, a Forbes article stands out, proclaiming that “Windows 11 has finally caught Windows 10’s market share after years of frustration.” However, this assertion raises questions about the accuracy of the data, as the margin between the two operating systems is so narrow that it falls within the realm of statistical error.
While many analysts scramble to explain the reasons behind these fluctuations, a more pertinent inquiry might be, “Did this really happen?” The reality is that Statcounter’s reports, while compelling, often reflect statistical noise rather than substantive shifts in user behavior. To simplify the situation: when one number rises, another tends to fall.
To illustrate this point, I created a line chart using data from Statcounter, focusing exclusively on the United States from January 2022 to June 2025. This chart incorporates third-order polynomial trendlines to smooth out the erratic monthly figures, revealing a clearer picture of the ongoing trends. The results indicate a steady decline in pageviews from Windows 10 devices, contrasted with a consistent increase from Windows 11 machines. This trend has shown signs of acceleration in recent months, despite the inherent fluctuations in the data.
It’s essential to note that Statcounter’s metrics are derived from pageviews rather than actual market share. This distinction is crucial, as it means that the data does not account for unique visits or sessions. For instance, if one user navigates through five pages on a Windows 11 device while another browses ten pages on a Windows 10 device, Statcounter’s report would inaccurately suggest that Windows 10 is more popular.
Who is Statcounter?
Statcounter, an Ireland-based web analytics firm established in 1999, originally focused on counting website hits through a tracking pixel embedded by clients. Over the years, however, its customer base has dwindled significantly, dropping from 3 million in 2009 to just 1.5 million by 2022. This decline is not surprising, given the dominance of competitors like Google Analytics and other analytics services.
Where do Statcounter’s numbers come from?
The data provided by Statcounter aggregates pageviews from a variety of small to medium-sized websites that utilize its tracking services. However, this sample is not representative of the broader web traffic landscape, as it excludes major sites like Google and Facebook. Furthermore, Statcounter’s methodology focuses solely on pageviews, which can skew the interpretation of “market share.” For example, if a user on a Windows 11 PC visits multiple pages on a Statcounter-enabled site, the resulting data may inaccurately inflate Windows 10’s perceived popularity if that user visits fewer pages.
So, what’s the real story?
While Statcounter’s data can provide insights into how users interact with its client websites, it does not accurately reflect the overall market share of Windows operating systems. The trends observed indicate a gradual decline in traffic from Windows 10 devices and a corresponding rise from Windows 11 devices, particularly as the end-of-support date for Windows 10 approaches. However, these trends do not necessarily correlate with the global population of Windows PCs.
As the deadline for Windows 10 support looms, many devices will remain on this platform, complicating any predictions about a sudden shift in user behavior. Without access to Microsoft’s internal telemetry data, the broader implications of these trends remain speculative. For those considering wagers based on Statcounter’s findings, caution is advised; the data may not provide a reliable foundation for serious investment decisions.
Editor’s note: This story was originally published in February 2025. It was updated with the latest data and fresh charts on July 7, 2025.
Windows 11 usage is surging? Not so fast – here’s the real story
As the calendar turns each month, a familiar pattern emerges in the tech journalism landscape. Numerous publications release articles that echo one another, all drawing from a singular chart crafted by Statcounter Global Stats. The latest iteration of this chart, which encapsulates data from the year ending June 30, 2025, has once again sparked a flurry of analysis and commentary.
This month, the spotlight is on the apparent decline of Windows 10, represented by the purple line, juxtaposed with the resurgence of Windows 11, depicted by the blue line. The challenge for commentators has been to decipher this shift in market dynamics. A quick glance at the headlines reveals a mix of excitement and confusion, with phrases like “Windows 11 is surging!” and “finally caught up with Windows 10!” dominating the narrative.
Among the more colorful interpretations, a Forbes article stands out, proclaiming that “Windows 11 has finally caught Windows 10’s market share after years of frustration.” However, this assertion raises questions about the accuracy of the data, as the margin between the two operating systems is so narrow that it falls within the realm of statistical error.
While many analysts scramble to explain the reasons behind these fluctuations, a more pertinent inquiry might be, “Did this really happen?” The reality is that Statcounter’s reports, while compelling, often reflect statistical noise rather than substantive shifts in user behavior. To simplify the situation: when one number rises, another tends to fall.
To illustrate this point, I created a line chart using data from Statcounter, focusing exclusively on the United States from January 2022 to June 2025. This chart incorporates third-order polynomial trendlines to smooth out the erratic monthly figures, revealing a clearer picture of the ongoing trends. The results indicate a steady decline in pageviews from Windows 10 devices, contrasted with a consistent increase from Windows 11 machines. This trend has shown signs of acceleration in recent months, despite the inherent fluctuations in the data.
It’s essential to note that Statcounter’s metrics are derived from pageviews rather than actual market share. This distinction is crucial, as it means that the data does not account for unique visits or sessions. For instance, if one user navigates through five pages on a Windows 11 device while another browses ten pages on a Windows 10 device, Statcounter’s report would inaccurately suggest that Windows 10 is more popular.
Who is Statcounter?
Statcounter, an Ireland-based web analytics firm established in 1999, originally focused on counting website hits through a tracking pixel embedded by clients. Over the years, however, its customer base has dwindled significantly, dropping from 3 million in 2009 to just 1.5 million by 2022. This decline is not surprising, given the dominance of competitors like Google Analytics and other analytics services.
Where do Statcounter’s numbers come from?
The data provided by Statcounter aggregates pageviews from a variety of small to medium-sized websites that utilize its tracking services. However, this sample is not representative of the broader web traffic landscape, as it excludes major sites like Google and Facebook. Furthermore, Statcounter’s methodology focuses solely on pageviews, which can skew the interpretation of “market share.” For example, if a user on a Windows 11 PC visits multiple pages on a Statcounter-enabled site, the resulting data may inaccurately inflate Windows 10’s perceived popularity if that user visits fewer pages.
So, what’s the real story?
While Statcounter’s data can provide insights into how users interact with its client websites, it does not accurately reflect the overall market share of Windows operating systems. The trends observed indicate a gradual decline in traffic from Windows 10 devices and a corresponding rise from Windows 11 devices, particularly as the end-of-support date for Windows 10 approaches. However, these trends do not necessarily correlate with the global population of Windows PCs.
As the deadline for Windows 10 support looms, many devices will remain on this platform, complicating any predictions about a sudden shift in user behavior. Without access to Microsoft’s internal telemetry data, the broader implications of these trends remain speculative. For those considering wagers based on Statcounter’s findings, caution is advised; the data may not provide a reliable foundation for serious investment decisions.
Editor’s note: This story was originally published in February 2025. It was updated with the latest data and fresh charts on July 7, 2025.