According to recent insights from TrendForce, the global laptop market is poised for a modest resurgence in 2024, with sales projected to rise by 4.9%, culminating in an impressive total of 183 million units. This anticipated growth is largely attributed to a combination of improved political and economic conditions in the United States, as well as the impending end-of-life for Windows 10. As businesses seek to upgrade their devices to maintain security and functionality, the demand for new laptops is expected to surge.
Market Dynamics and AI Integration
Interestingly, this forecast stands in contrast to the predictions made by some hardware manufacturers, who assert that AI-powered laptops, particularly those utilizing Arm architecture, are set to dominate the market. However, TrendForce emphasizes that the current impact of AI-integrated notebooks remains limited. Many consumers are opting for these AI PCs not necessarily for their advanced neural processing capabilities but rather because they represent the available options in the market. For instance, Microsoft’s much-publicized Copilot+ PC accounted for less than 10% of shipments in the third quarter of 2024.
Despite this, researchers foresee a gradual yet steady penetration of AI notebooks into the market, especially as manufacturers increasingly incorporate these technologies into their entire laptop lineup.
The year 2024 has not been without its challenges for the laptop sector. While shipments are expected to experience a year-on-year increase of 3.9%, reaching 174 million units by year-end, the commercial segment has faced limited growth due to widespread layoffs and ongoing political instability. In contrast, consumer demand for laptops has been primarily fueled by promotional activities, particularly boosting sales of entry-level models.
Looking ahead, TrendForce predicts that consumer notebook shipments will cool to a growth rate of 3% next year. However, there is an optimistic outlook for high-end models, which are anticipated to yield better profit margins. This trend is likely to be bolstered by Nvidia’s upcoming launch of its RTX 50-series GPUs for both desktops and laptops in early 2025.
Additionally, Chromebook sales are projected to rise by 8%, driven largely by Japan’s GIGA School 2.0 initiative, which aims to provide one laptop per child across the nation.
Nevertheless, the market remains shrouded in uncertainty, particularly concerning the potential implications of a Trump presidency. Many stakeholders are apprehensive that his administration could impose tariffs that might dampen demand in the U.S. market, especially given that East Asian countries currently account for approximately 89% of global laptop production. While some manufacturers are exploring relocation to more favorable countries like Vietnam and Mexico, the transition to new production and logistics frameworks will require time. Consequently, any abrupt policy shifts could disrupt the market and alter the projected growth trajectory for the laptop industry.
