In a recent blog post, technology analyst Benedict Evans raised a thought-provoking question regarding Apple’s current trajectory: Is the company experiencing a “Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?” This inquiry draws a parallel to Microsoft’s Windows Vista, which faced significant backlash upon its 2007 launch due to a myriad of issues including software bugs, performance hiccups, and design controversies.
Concerns Over Recent Product Launches
Evans pointed to Apple’s Vision Pro headset as a key example of this perceived decline in execution. He expressed skepticism about the product’s readiness for market, suggesting that it was premature to launch. Additionally, he highlighted the company’s recent unveiling of personalized Siri features at the Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC), which he described as merely conceptual and now delayed.
“This is a concern,” Evans remarked, emphasizing the implications of these delays on Apple’s reputation for timely product releases.
“The Vision Pro is a concept, or a demo, and Apple doesn’t ship demos. Why did it ship the Vision Pro? What did it achieve? It didn’t sell in meaningful volume, because it couldn’t, and it didn’t lead to much developer activity either, because no one bought it. A lot of people even at Apple are puzzled.”
Evans further elaborated on the situation with Siri, framing the delay as a “mirror image” of the Vision Pro’s predicament. He noted that Apple typically showcases products when they are nearly complete, making the current delay particularly unusual.
“Apple showed a demo, and it only does demos when things are nearly done, and it said it would ship ‘later this year’ and it never misses deadlines like that. So we should be using it today. And now we find that we didn’t really see a demo, only a mock-up of a great concept, and that this product won’t ship until maybe late 2025, and possibly (going by the rumor mill) 2026, or even 2027.”
This sequence of events led Evans to his Vista-like analogy, suggesting a troubling trend for Apple in terms of product launches.
“The failure of Siri 2 is by far the most dramatic instance of a growing trend for Apple to launch stuff late. The software release cycle used to be a metronome: announcement at WWDC in the summer, OS release in September with everything you’d seen. There were plenty of delays and failed projects under the hood, but public promises were always kept. Now that seems to be slipping. Is this a symptom of a Vista-like drift into systemically poor execution?”
Despite his concerns, Evans acknowledged a long-standing narrative that has accompanied Apple for decades—critics have often claimed the company is no longer innovative. Historically, however, Apple has continued to produce groundbreaking and category-defining products. Yet, Evans finds himself questioning whether that innovative spirit still thrives within the company today.
For those interested in a deeper dive into Evans’ analysis, his full blog post, recently highlighted by Techmeme, offers valuable insights worth exploring.
