Each month, as the calendar turns, a familiar rhythm emerges in the tech journalism landscape. Publications eagerly publish articles that echo one another, all drawing from a singular source: the latest chart from Statcounter Global Stats. This predictable cycle often leads to a flurry of analysis attempting to decode the numbers, sometimes featuring insights from industry analysts. However, this trend often resembles a race, with each site vying to present the most compelling narrative based on the same underlying data.
This month, the spotlight is on the shifting fortunes of Windows operating systems. Observers are keen to dissect the apparent decline of Windows 10, represented by the purple line in Statcounter’s chart, while Windows 11, marked by the blue line, appears to be regaining its footing. A quick glance at Google News reveals a cascade of articles already attempting to unravel this phenomenon, with more surely on the horizon.
One particularly striking claim comes from Forbes, which boldly states, “The January stats are now out, and according to Statcounter, the Windows 11 upgrade trend has now un-reversed itself … some 40 million hold-outs have suddenly upgraded their PCs in the last 31 days.” Yet, amidst the excitement, a more prudent inquiry arises: “Did this actually happen?” followed by “Are we certain?” and “What does this data truly signify?”
The reality is that Statcounter’s “market share” reports serve as a convenient backdrop for tech writers, but their connection to real-world trends is tenuous at best. Many month-to-month fluctuations are mere statistical noise rather than meaningful shifts. To illustrate this point, I created a chart using data sourced from Statcounter, spanning from January 2022 to January 2025, focusing solely on the United States. By incorporating third-order polynomial trendlines and a margin of error shadow, the chart reveals a more nuanced narrative.
What emerges is a consistent trend: pageviews from Windows 10 PCs are steadily declining, while those from Windows 11 PCs are on the rise. This observation diverges from the conventional “market share” narrative, as Statcounter’s data is based on pageviews rather than visits or unique devices. The monthly fluctuations, such as the spike in Windows 8.x usage in January 2024, raise eyebrows. Did millions of users suddenly revive their old Windows 8 devices for a brief period? Such scenarios seem implausible.
It is essential to clarify that the Statcounter team is not at fault for leveraging the opportunity to generate buzz. However, it is imperative for journalists and analysts to scrutinize the data behind Statcounter’s charts critically, as these numbers often falter under even mild scrutiny.
Who is Statcounter?
Founded in 1999, Statcounter is a web analytics company based in Ireland, initially designed to count website hits through a tracking pixel embedded by clients. While this model thrived for years, the company’s customer base has dwindled significantly. From a peak of 3 million customers in 2009, the number halved to 1.5 million by 2022.
According to W3Techs, Statcounter’s market share among websites has also declined, dropping from 0.9% in 2019 to just 0.4% by January 2025. This decline is unsurprising, given the dominance of Google Analytics and other major players in the analytics space.
Where do Statcounter’s numbers come from?
Statcounter aggregates data from a mix of small and medium-sized websites, collecting information on pageviews, hardware types, operating systems, and browsers. However, its data collection has significantly decreased over the past decade. A decade ago, Statcounter reported measuring over 17 billion pageviews monthly; by 2022, that figure had plummeted to 5 billion.
Statcounter’s data primarily reflects traffic from niche websites that utilize its tracking code, excluding major sites like Google or Facebook. This omission skews the sample, making it unrepresentative of broader market trends. Additionally, Statcounter measures only pageviews, not visits or sessions, creating further discrepancies in its “market share” reports.
So, what’s the real story?
While Statcounter’s data accurately portrays user behavior on its client websites, it fails to provide a comprehensive picture of the Windows PC market. It indicates a slow decline in traffic from Windows 10 PCs and a gradual increase from Windows 11 PCs, but these numbers likely do not correlate with the global population of PCs.
Many Windows 10 devices remain ineligible for upgrade to Windows 11, a situation expected to persist until support for Windows 10 concludes in October 2025. Without access to Microsoft’s telemetry data, estimating the distribution of devices across these operating systems remains speculative at best. Therefore, while Statcounter’s insights can spark discussion, they should be approached with caution and a critical eye.