Amidst the buzz surrounding AI PCs this year, a recent analysis from TrendForce sheds light on the actual drivers behind the anticipated surge in laptop sales for 2024. Contrary to expectations, the report suggests that the uptick is more closely tied to updates in Windows 11 than to the allure of advanced AI features.
Market Dynamics and Consumer Behavior
According to TrendForce, the influence of AI-integrated notebooks on the broader market remains minimal at this stage. The report indicates that while AI capabilities are expected to gradually become standard in notebook specifications, the current penetration rates of AI notebooks are still low. It is reasonable to infer that the term “AI-integrated notebooks” refers to Copilot+ PCs, which are equipped with a robust neural processing unit (NPU) designed for local AI processing.
Several factors contribute to this trend. The report highlights that the North American consumer market has been largely shaped by aggressive promotions and a focus on entry-level models. In contrast, Copilot+ PCs, priced from 9, target a more premium audience, which does not align with the current consumer demand for laptops.
For AI PCs to gain traction, they must convincingly demonstrate how their AI capabilities can enhance user experience. However, this has yet to materialize. Many users continue to rely on cloud-based AI tools like ChatGPT, finding their existing hardware sufficient for everyday tasks such as video calls and document editing. While professionals might appreciate the efficiency gains offered by AI PCs for more demanding tasks like video editing, the average consumer perceives limited immediate benefits, leading to a reluctance to upgrade.
The situation has been further complicated by privacy concerns and delays surrounding the rollout of Recall, a key AI feature for Copilot+ PCs, which has only recently begun to be implemented after a six-month wait.
Despite the lukewarm reception of AI features, the increase in PC sales is a positive development. Global notebook shipments are projected to rise by 4.9%, reaching 183 million units by 2025. As the deadline for Windows 10 support approaches, both businesses and consumers are increasingly motivated to upgrade their systems.
However, the discontinuation of Windows 10 has emerged as the primary catalyst for new laptop purchases. Many older devices do not meet the hardware requirements for Windows 11, such as TPM 2.0, necessitating replacements for otherwise functional machines. This has sparked significant demand for non-AI laptops that are compatible with the latest operating system. Users upgrading for compliance or functionality are prioritizing cost-effective options over the more experimental AI PCs.
As AI technology continues to evolve and matures, its appeal may increase, particularly if software becomes better optimized for NPUs and prices become more accessible. Nevertheless, the current push for AI remains a secondary consideration compared to the pressing need to transition to Windows 11. This scenario underscores a disconnect between industry innovation and consumer priorities, with the latter focused on affordability and essential functionality rather than speculative advancements.
