Groceries, gas, and rent are taking precedence over new laptops in the United States, a trend that is significantly impacting the PC market. Recent data from Canalys, part of Omdia, reveals that shipments have declined by 1.4% year-on-year, totaling 18.6 million units in Q2 2025. As inflation persists and job reports remain weak, consumers are opting to hold onto their older machines rather than upgrading, even with the impending end-of-support deadline for Microsoft’s Windows 10 in October.
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, while headline inflation has eased to 2.4% as of March 2025, food prices have risen approximately 3% year-on-year, and shelter costs remain high at 4.3%. This leaves households with little room for discretionary spending. “As a result, many American households are waiting until their PCs fail outright before purchasing new ones, putting pressure on vendors who are hoping for a Windows 11-driven refresh cycle,” explained Greg Davis, Analyst at Canalys. “Premium electronics are losing ground to essentials like food and energy. Even with rising awareness about the Windows 10 deadline, most consumers aren’t treating PCs as urgent purchases.”
Commercial Strength vs. Consumer Weakness
In stark contrast to the consumer landscape, the business sector is experiencing a different narrative. The awareness of the Windows 10 end-of-support deadline, coupled with a surge in demand for AI-capable PCs to enhance workflows, is prompting US businesses to upgrade their systems. Consequently, commercial demand saw a growth of 4% in the quarter, as companies embrace PC upgrades and explore the capabilities of AI-enabled machines. “AI adoption in the commercial sector has had strong success in the US,” noted Davis. “Business adoption of AI has more than doubled over the last two years, with usage up 50% in 2025 alone.”
However, this growth in the commercial sector has not been sufficient to counterbalance the sluggish consumer spending. Inflation and weak job reports continue to squeeze household budgets, relegating PC purchases to a lower priority. “Even with the Windows 10 deadline approaching, most consumers are waiting until their PCs truly wear out before buying new ones,” Davis added. Adding to the complexity is a timing quirk: earlier this year, many vendors shipped extra units in anticipation of potential tariffs, resulting in substantial inventory backlogs. As these backlogs are cleared, the current figures reflect a market grappling with both hesitance and the remnants of prior stockpiling.
Vendor Performance: Apple Surges, Lenovo Gains
Despite the overall market contraction, not all brands are facing the same fate. Apple emerged as a standout performer this quarter, achieving a remarkable 15.5% year-on-year growth and steadily increasing its market share, appealing to both creative professionals and status-conscious consumers. Lenovo also experienced growth, rising by 5.1% as it capitalized on its strengths across both consumer and commercial segments. Conversely, traditional leaders HP and Dell reported declines of 4.8% and 3.5%, respectively, while Acer and smaller brands faced the sharpest downturns.
Uneven Growth Ahead
Looking ahead, shipments in 2025 are projected to increase by 2.6%, reaching around 71 million units, primarily driven by commercial demand. Consumer demand, however, is expected to remain weak, shrinking by nearly 4% this year, with a slight rebound anticipated in 2026 before dipping again in 2027. Households are likely to continue delaying upgrades. The real impetus for growth will stem from the commercial sector as companies proceed with their Windows 11 migrations and invest in AI-ready machines. Shipments in this segment are forecasted to rise by more than 8% this year, followed by an additional 3.9% in 2026. However, by 2027, both consumer and commercial shipments are expected to decline sharply, with commercial shipments projected to drop by more than 8%.
Government and education sectors also add layers of complexity to market performance. Government shipments are anticipated to grow by a robust 9.9% this year, tapering to smaller gains in 2026 before experiencing a 3.5% decline in 2027. Education PCs are expected to remain relatively flat in 2025, dip by 1.9% the following year, and then surge nearly 10% in 2027 as schools refresh their fleets.
In summary, the overall US market is forecasted to rise to 71 million units in 2025, peak at 73.5 million in 2026 (a 3.5% increase), and then contract to approximately 70.8 million in 2027, reflecting a 3.7% decline.
Bottom Line
Currently, the US PC market is at a standstill. Consumers are hesitant to spend, businesses are cautiously investing in AI, and vendors are pinning their hopes on the Windows 10 deadline to stimulate demand. For the moment, that spark remains elusive, as the average American household is preoccupied with managing bills rather than upgrading laptops. Until this dynamic shifts, the market is likely to continue its slow progression rather than accelerating forward.
