The global PC market experienced a notable uptick in shipments during the second quarter of 2025, with a reported increase of 7.4% year-on-year, bringing the total to 67.6 million units. However, this surge appears to be more a reflection of urgent business upgrades and impending software deadlines rather than a resurgence in consumer confidence.
Business Upgrades Drive Market Growth
According to Canalys, the looming end of support for Windows 10 in October 2025 is the primary catalyst behind this growth. Kieren Jessop, Research Manager at Canalys, noted, “Despite global uncertainty, the Windows 10 end of support deadline this October is providing essential market stability, but is affecting consumer and commercial segments differently.” While businesses are actively refreshing their PC deployments, consumer spending on personal devices has stagnated, with many individuals opting to delay upgrades until 2026 amid broader economic concerns.
This postponement could lead to a significant consumer demand spike next year, as many devices purchased during the pandemic reach the end of their lifecycle. Jessop emphasized the importance of the commercial refresh cycle, stating, “The commercial refresh cycle is providing vital momentum for the market.” A recent poll revealed that over half of channel partners anticipate growth in their PC business during the latter half of 2025, with nearly a third expecting growth exceeding 10%.
Vendor Landscape and Market Dynamics
The competitive landscape reflects these trends, with Lenovo maintaining its lead by shipping 17.0 million units, marking a 15.2% increase from the previous year. HP followed with 14.1 million units, a modest rise of 3.2%, while Dell experienced a slight decline of 3.0%. Notably, Apple demonstrated the strongest growth among major vendors, with a remarkable 21.3% increase to 6.4 million units, and Asus closely trailed with an 18.4% rise.
Additionally, the market benefited from a 9% increase in desktop shipments and a 7% rise in notebooks, including workstations. However, the growth is not solely attributed to software lifecycles; it is also influenced by shifting global trade policies. Ben Yeh, Principal Analyst at Canalys, pointed out that evolving US tariff policies are reshaping the PC supply chain landscape. “The Trump administration’s evolving tariff policies continue to reshape global PC supply chains while casting uncertainty over market recovery,” he remarked.
Yeh cautioned that while PCs remain exempt from tariffs for the time being, the situation is increasingly complex. The recent US-Vietnam trade agreement, which introduces new tariffs of 20% on Vietnamese goods and up to 40% on items deemed transhipped, may compel manufacturers to rethink their supply chain strategies in light of rising cost pressures.
In summary, while the current shipment figures present an optimistic outlook, the underlying factors driving this growth are largely transient, heavily reliant on a fixed software lifecycle and the precarious nature of international trade agreements.
