As the clock ticks down to the end of life for Windows 10, a staggering 900 million users find themselves at a crossroads, either unable or unwilling to transition to Windows 11. With just one year left before support ceases, the potential consequences loom large, particularly if Microsoft maintains its stringent hardware requirements for the new operating system. The prospect of hundreds of millions losing access to critical support is becoming increasingly plausible.
Market Dynamics and PC Shipments
In order for Windows 11 to achieve its ambitious adoption targets, a significant uptick in new PC sales is essential. However, recent data from IDC reveals a concerning trend: worldwide shipments of traditional PCs fell by 2.4% year-over-year, totaling 68.8 million units in the third quarter of 2024. Gartner’s findings echo this sentiment, reporting a slightly less severe decline of 1.3%. The firm attributes the sluggish demand for a Windows PC refresh—prompted by the impending end of Windows 10 support in 2025—to economic challenges in various regions, although it anticipates more robust growth in the coming year.
Canalys, on the other hand, noted a modest growth of 1.3% in the same quarter, emphasizing the urgent need for a substantial increase in sales in 2025. A significant portion of the existing Windows PC user base still requires an upgrade before the October 2025 deadline for Windows 10 support.
Despite Canalys estimating that approximately 240 million PCs currently in use are not capable of running Windows 11, the majority of new sales are not replacing outdated Windows 10 devices that lack the necessary TPM 2.0 chip. Over the past year, only 130 million Windows 10 users have made the switch to Windows 11.
Enterprise vs. Home Users
Analysts suggest that the enterprise sector may drive the anticipated surge in PC purchases in 2025, with IDC reporting that many businesses are already beginning to refresh their systems in anticipation of the end of Windows 10 support. Ironically, these enterprise users are also more inclined to opt for Microsoft’s paid extended support options. In contrast, home users who are either unable or unwilling to invest in new hardware or support contracts represent a more pressing concern as the deadline approaches.
In addition to the Windows 11 transition, there is a notable lack of demand for new Co-pilot PCs, despite the recent buzz surrounding Microsoft’s AI-related updates. As The Register pointed out, the anticipated excitement around these “magical AI PC boxes” has yet to translate into significant growth in the desktop and laptop market.
Moreover, a considerable number of users remain on even older operating systems than Windows 10. Microsoft has suggested that these 50 million users consider purchasing new hardware to facilitate an upgrade, a recommendation that has drawn criticism and sparked stark headlines. TechRadar quipped, “Can’t upgrade your PC to Windows 11? Buy a new one,” highlighting the disconnect between Microsoft’s expectations and user realities.
With 900 million Windows 10 users unlikely to migrate en masse in the next year, and many of the 300 million users with incompatible hardware not poised to drive the anticipated PC buying surge, the looming support crisis becomes more pronounced. As the deadline approaches, the extent of this support dilemma remains uncertain, but it is clear that the situation is evolving into a significant concern for both users and the industry alike.
