Microsoft finds itself navigating a challenging landscape as it endeavors to persuade its vast base of 800 million Windows 10 users to transition to Windows 11. With the clock ticking down to the end-of-support deadline for the aging operating system next October, and sales of new AI-enabled PCs falling short of expectations, the stakes are particularly high this holiday shopping season.
Shifting Trends in Operating System Adoption
Recent statistics from November reveal a concerning trend: after a steady eight-month increase in Windows 11 upgrades, the momentum has abruptly stalled. This downturn, while representing only about 1% of users—roughly 10 to 15 million—has significant implications, especially in the crucial US market.
According to data from Statcounter, the global market share for Windows 10 has risen from 61% to 62%, while Windows 11 has dipped from over 35.5% to below 35%. In the United States, the shift is even more pronounced, with Windows 10 climbing from 58% to 61% and Windows 11 falling sharply from nearly 40% to below 37% after a consistent period of growth.
While the global figures may fall within the margin of error, the US data presents a clearer picture. This shift follows Microsoft’s announcement of a 12-month extended support option for Windows 10 users, available for per PC. For those reluctant to upgrade, this option provides a tempting alternative.
The reasons behind this trend remain somewhat elusive. It appears that many Windows 10 users are reassessing the urgency of upgrading now that they know they can continue receiving security updates until October 2026. Despite Microsoft’s ongoing efforts to encourage the switch through ads and notifications, these strategies have not yielded the desired results.
Adding another layer of complexity to this situation is the approximately 400 million users who lack the necessary hardware to upgrade. Although there are pathways to upgrade on non-compatible PCs, Microsoft has reiterated its warning that such actions could halt future updates and potentially void existing hardware warranties.
Another factor to consider is the influence of AI technology. Many Windows 10 users may be delaying hardware upgrades, believing that waiting will yield more cost-effective options. Given that AI features remain relatively limited, the perceived risk of postponing an upgrade may seem low. Current trends indicate that most hardware purchases are still geared toward basic functionality rather than advanced AI capabilities.
As we look ahead, the post-Extended Security Updates (ESU) landscape will be intriguing to observe. December’s statistics and the holiday season’s PC sales will provide valuable insights into the trajectory for 2025. The uptake of the ESU option will also play a critical role in shaping future trends.
Microsoft has consistently highlighted that Windows 11 offers enhanced safety and security compared to its predecessor. Consequently, the recent shift suggests that 10 to 15 million users are now exposed to risks they would otherwise avoid, a development that raises concerns for the tech giant.
