With the countdown to the end of Windows 10 support rapidly approaching, a significant number of computers remain on the older operating system. Despite the concerted efforts of hardware manufacturers and Microsoft’s marketing teams, hundreds of millions of devices have yet to transition to Windows 11. As of October 14, Microsoft will issue its final updates and security fixes for Windows 10, compelling business customers to consider extended security updates at a cost of for the first year. This fee escalates to 2 in the second year and doubles again in the third.
Current Landscape of Windows Devices
Microsoft has previously disclosed that there are approximately 1.4 billion Windows devices globally, encompassing both consumer and business use. According to analyst Kieren Jessop from Omdia, around 550 million of these devices are utilized within corporate environments, with nearly half of them unlikely to meet the impending end-of-life deadline for upgrading to Windows 11. “Globally, 47 to 50 percent of commercial PCs are on Windows 11,” Jessop noted, emphasizing regional disparities. In the United States, the adoption rate is nearing 60 percent, while in the EMEA region, it may reach 65 percent. However, the upgrade trend appears less pronounced in emerging markets.
Omdia’s analysis, which draws from 25 years of data on market shipments, replacement cycles, and new purchases, indicates that about 20 percent of the machines failing to upgrade in time do not satisfy the hardware requirements set forth by Microsoft. These requirements include a Trusted Platform Module and a relatively modern CPU.
Challenges for Businesses
Jessop highlighted that many businesses are currently prioritizing other budgetary concerns over replacing PCs. “Businesses have a lot of things on their plate at the moment,” he remarked. Reflecting on past trends, he pointed out that fewer than 30 percent of Windows users were still operating on Windows 7 when its support ended on January 14, 2020, largely due to the absence of new hardware requirements for migrating to Windows 10.
Moreover, the rising average selling prices for PCs may have contributed to sluggish sales. Major manufacturers such as Lenovo, Dell, and HP have introduced AI-capable devices, while Microsoft has launched Copilot+ devices. However, these innovations have not been delivered in the anticipated volumes, partly due to a lack of compelling applications and the associated costs that deter potential buyers.
Market Dynamics and Future Projections
Jessop noted that the general refresh cycle for commercial devices has impacted shipments this year, but the anticipated upgrade wave has not materialized as strongly as in previous years. Recent figures from Context suggest that adoption rates are beginning to gain momentum, with Omdia projecting a compound annual growth rate of 1.1 percent for the global PC market through 2029.
In addition to commercial customers, a substantial number of Windows 10 devices remain in the public sector. Jessop indicated that while businesses have allocated budgets for extended security updates for the first year, the escalating costs may soon make purchasing new devices a more sensible option.
In light of these developments, a campaign group representing numerous business customers across Europe and the US has urged Microsoft to extend the life of Windows 10 beyond the impending deadline. While consumers in the European Economic Area received a temporary reprieve, businesses have not been afforded the same consideration.
