Global PC shipments have experienced a notable resurgence, climbing 8.1 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, as reported by Counterpoint Research.
Factors Behind the Surge
This revitalization in the PC market can be attributed to two significant factors: the impending end of support for Windows 10 and strategic inventory adjustments in anticipation of evolving U.S. import tariffs. With Microsoft set to cease support for its long-standing operating system in October 2025, many corporations and consumers are feeling the pressure to upgrade their aging devices. Approximately 40 percent of the world’s PCs are still operating on Windows 10, prompting a wave of refreshes ahead of the deadline.
Leading the charge is Lenovo, the largest PC manufacturer globally, which saw its shipments soar by 17.4 percent year-on-year. HP maintained its position in second place with a commendable 10.3 percent increase, primarily driven by robust sales in the commercial sector. In contrast, Dell, often referred to as the Grey Box Shifter, faced a slight setback with a 0.9 percent decline in shipments compared to last year, although it did achieve a modest quarterly growth of 2.7 percent as enterprise buyers exercised caution.
Apple, known for its innovative products, enjoyed a remarkable 14.9 percent increase in shipments, fueled by the launch of new MacBooks and a surprising rise in enterprise orders. Asus also made headlines with an impressive quarter-on-quarter growth of 22.5 percent, alongside a 14.1 percent annual increase, largely due to strong demand for consumer notebooks.
Market Dynamics
The top five vendors now command nearly three-quarters of the global PC market, leaving smaller players struggling to compete. Minsoo Kang, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, noted that while the current growth is largely driven by the migration away from Windows 10, the industry is on the brink of a significant transformation with the advent of AI-capable PCs. However, this next wave of growth has yet to fully materialize in the Q3 2025 figures.
Kang anticipates that the true transformation will commence in 2026, coinciding with the arrival of the first generation of advanced AI chips. This lineup includes Qualcomm’s new Elite X2, Intel’s upcoming Panther Lake architecture, and various collaborative efforts with Nvidia’s technology.
David Naranjo, associate director at Counterpoint, emphasized that the rebound in the PC market in 2025 is about preparing for future advancements. Many enterprises are opting for AI-capable PCs to future-proof their fleets, even if they do not require those capabilities immediately. He stated, “This next refresh cycle will be defined by intelligence at the edge, not just performance improvements.”
The Future of AI PCs
At present, AI PCs are more about prestige than necessity, with most consumers prioritizing operating system compatibility, performance, and battery life over advanced on-device AI features. Nevertheless, manufacturers are aggressively promoting the concept of AI PCs, asserting that a significant boom will occur after 2026 when a new generation of processors begins to ship in volume.
Anticipated releases include Qualcomm’s Snapdragon X2 Elite, Intel’s Panther Lake Core Ultra range, and NVIDIA’s collaborations with MediaTek on Arm-based AI CPUs. However, mass shipments of these AI-centric processors are not expected until late 2026, suggesting that the much-anticipated “AI PC era” will only truly ignite from 2027 onwards.
As we look ahead to CES 2026, we can expect to see exciting demonstrations showcasing laptops capable of running large language models locally, moving away from reliance on cloud computing. For now, though, it is the legacy of Windows 10 that continues to drive sales and invigorate the market.
