User adoption of Windows 11 appears to be experiencing a slowdown, as the operating system continues to trail behind its predecessor, Windows 10, with the end of support for many Windows 10 versions approaching.
Market Share Insights
According to data from Statcounter, after a promising start in early 2025, the market share of Windows 11 has not expanded significantly in recent months. The operating system reached a peak of 43.72 percent in May but has since dipped to 43.22 percent by early June. In contrast, Windows 10 has seen a slight increase in its market share, now standing at 53.19 percent, up from 52.94 percent the previous month.
This stagnation in Windows 11 adoption is particularly noteworthy given the impending end of support for numerous Windows 10 versions, which could potentially heighten concerns within Microsoft regarding the operating system’s uptake.
Expert Analysis
Kieren Jessop, a research manager at Canalys, suggests that while the recent figures may seem concerning, the overall trajectory remains aligned with forecasts. He noted that the significant spike in adoption between February and March may have skewed expectations. Jessop remarked, “Prior to and during the tariff chaos, we saw a huge uptick in inventory in the US,” indicating that Windows 11 has now secured a dominant presence on Windows desktops across the country.
Looking beyond the US, Jessop indicated that the global transition to Windows 11 is progressing at a rate consistent with predictions. “We anticipate an uplift of between 0.5 and 1.5 percent in Windows 11 adoption each month through October, with higher rates expected in more developed markets,” he explained. He also highlighted that enterprise migrations often occur in waves, particularly as many fiscal years begin in July or October, suggesting that significant increases in adoption could be on the horizon.
Future Projections
Canalys has forecasted an 8.1 percent growth in commercial shipments of Windows-only devices in the US for 2025, alongside a 6.4 percent growth globally. However, the outlook for consumer shipments appears less optimistic, with expectations of a -2.5 percent decline in the US and a -0.7 percent decline globally.
The surge in PC shipments during the first quarter of 2025 can be partially attributed to fears surrounding tariffs, lending credence to the theory that US consumers rushed to purchase devices to avoid potential price increases. As the landscape evolves, the interplay between market dynamics and consumer behavior will continue to shape the adoption of Windows 11 and its competitors.
