AI Capabilities Drive Hardware Sales Amid Windows 11 Transition
The surge in personal computer purchases featuring artificial intelligence capabilities can largely be attributed to the recent refresh of Windows 11, rather than a deliberate shift towards AI-focused hardware. Kieran Jessop, an analyst at Omdia, emphasizes that while a significant portion of the PCs sold are AI-enabled, this functionality has not been the primary motivator for upgrades, and it is unlikely to become a central consideration in the near future.
With the impending end of support for Windows 10 on October 14, the urgency to transition to a more secure and updated operating system has been a pivotal factor driving hardware sales in 2025. Jessop notes, “The commercial refresh has been holding up the market this year. The growth we are witnessing is fundamentally linked to the Windows 11 refresh rather than a specific push towards AI-capable PCs.” He adds that while there is traction for AI-enabled devices, much of this is simply a reflection of their increasing prevalence in the market.
Although a niche segment of customers actively seeks AI capabilities, the broader consumer base remains focused on traditional performance metrics. Jessop states, “For most consumers and businesses, the priorities in purchasing decisions revolve around performance, battery life, compatibility with existing software, and manageability of the PC fleet.” These factors are expected to remain dominant influences in the immediate future.
Looking ahead, Jessop forecasts a modest growth trajectory for global PC shipments, estimating a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 1.1% over the next four years. “The market is primarily replacement-driven,” he explains. “We are observing some growth in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly with lower-cost devices, alongside a robust premium segment emerging in developing economies.” However, he cautions that AI capabilities are unlikely to become a decisive factor in consumer choices in the coming years, as fundamental needs continue to take precedence.
Despite the approaching end-of-life support for Windows 10, a substantial number of users remain on this operating system. The necessity for hardware refreshes is expected to persist as a market driver into 2026. “Globally, about half of the install base consists of older devices that are over six years old and do not meet the hardware requirements for Windows 11,” Jessop points out. He anticipates that the second wave of adoption in the commercial sector will accelerate, particularly as the costs associated with Extended Security Updates (ESU) rise significantly after the first year.
“Some enterprises have budgeted for a year of ESU, but as costs double in subsequent years, many will find it more economical to invest in new devices rather than continue with outdated systems,” he adds. Analysts monitoring PC sales have recognized the positive influence of the Windows 11 refresh, while also acknowledging that the allure of AI-capable devices plays a role in attracting consumers to new hardware options.
