In a recent analysis, a firm has forecasted a notable decline in consumer PC sales within the United States, projecting a dip of 3.9 percent in 2025, resulting in approximately 25.284 million units sold. However, a rebound is anticipated in 2026, with an expected growth of 5.4 percent, bringing sales to around 26.651 million units. In contrast, rival market researcher IDC has predicted a more stable outlook for the second quarter, suggesting flat sales in the U.S. but a promising 6.5 percent increase in the global PC market.
The ongoing turbulence in the U.S. economy, exacerbated by tariffs, has created a complex landscape for the PC market, leading to fluctuating sales figures. Despite this uncertainty, retail sales in August showed a surprising increase of 0.6 percent, surpassing expectations. Best Buy’s CEO, Corie Bary, noted a shift in consumer behavior, stating, “We see almost everyone looking for value now,” and highlighting a bifurcation in spending habits where consumers are willing to invest if they perceive significant value.
According to JPR, the analysis extends beyond mere sales figures to include the impact of the Windows 10 to Windows 11 transition, which has introduced unique challenges. Ted Pollak, JPR’s senior analyst of game tech, emphasized the unprecedented nature of this forced hardware migration, stating, “Never before in the history of the Microsoft Windows operating system has there been a forced hardware migration requirement.” This transition necessitates CPU upgrades for over 100 million gamers, often requiring additional investments in motherboards and RAM.
While many PC gamers are opting for new prebuilt systems, those who prefer building their own are adapting by constructing new machines alongside their existing setups. Pollak remarked, “This allows them to continue using their PC until their Windows 11 builds are complete,” showcasing the resilience and adaptability of the DIY gaming community.
Trouble on the horizon?
JPR has been tracking PC graphics trends for over three decades, and recent reports indicate a concerning decline in Intel’s market share in this sector, which has reportedly dropped to nearly zero. Looking ahead, JPR’s president, Jon Peddie, expressed a more cautious outlook, projecting a significant decrease in entry-level PC gaming over the next five years, with an anticipated reduction of 13 percent in entry-level gamers.
“Included in this drop are over 10 million people leaving the PC platform entirely,” Peddie explained. He noted that while some gamers are migrating to consoles, handhelds, and mobile devices for better value, a portion of these entry-level defectors are not abandoning the PC ecosystem altogether but are instead upgrading to midrange and high-end hardware tiers.
