Windows 10, which debuted in July 2015, was initially heralded as the final major operating system upgrade from Microsoft. However, the tech giant surprised many by unveiling Windows 11 in October 2021. As a result, Windows 10 has now reached its end of life, meaning it will no longer receive updates.
For consumers who opt for extended support and utilize Microsoft’s cloud for backups, free security updates will be available until October 2026. Conversely, corporate devices linked to Active Directory will only receive updates if they are enrolled in an Extended Security Updates (ESU) subscription.
In July, the National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) issued a cautionary note regarding the significant security risks associated with remaining on an outdated operating system. The NCSC highlighted that an unsupported OS becomes an attractive target for cybercriminals. They referenced past incidents, such as the exploitation of vulnerabilities in Internet Explorer versions 6-11 after Windows XP support ended in April 2014, and the extensive damage caused by the WannaCry ransomware attack in 2017, which targeted unpatched versions of XP.
According to Forrester’s report, Say goodbye to Windows 10 to reduce your cyber risk, Windows 11 offers enhanced security features absent in its predecessor. These include improved administrator protections that facilitate least privileged access, as well as Smart App Control, which validates applications prior to execution. Additionally, the latest version of Credential Guard extends account protection to machine account passwords, marking a significant advancement in security.
Forrester analysts noted, “Much has been made about Microsoft’s plans to better control the security of the kernel after CrowdStrike’s 2024 issue. Their goal isn’t to completely lock out vendors, but to ensure incidents like this don’t reoccur.” They emphasized that features and functions should be transitioned from the kernel to user space wherever possible.
However, the heightened security measures in Windows 11 pose challenges for migrating older hardware. The introduction of requirements such as Trusted Platform Module (TPM 2.0), UEFI, and Secure Boot means that devices lacking even one of these features will face difficulties in upgrading. The NCSC warns that devices failing to meet these hardware specifications remain vulnerable to attacks.
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Recent analysis by Nexthink revealed a 33% decrease in Windows 10 devices between May 19 and August 1. If this trend continues, a further reduction of 33% by the end of support on October 14 would leave approximately 121 million Windows 10 PCs still operational at that time. Tim Flower, DEX strategist at Nexthink, remarked, “Windows 11 brings powerful new capabilities, but only if devices and employees are ready to take advantage of them.”
Why Windows 10 wasn’t the last major OS update
Microsoft typically rolls out two major updates to its Windows operating system each year. Windows 10 was anticipated to be the final substantial refresh before transitioning to bi-annual updates, as noted by Gartner research director Ranjit Atwal. “When Windows 10 came out after Windows 7, Microsoft, I’m sure, said it was going to be the last big operating system upgrade,” he explained. “Effectively, Microsoft was saying there would be no Windows 11 after Windows 10, and we took that for gospel.”
However, Atwal pointed out in a Computer Weekly YouTube video that the very success of the Windows operating system has impeded progress. “So much legacy software and peripherals are supported through the operating system. At some point, that’s just become too much in terms of the code and managing the updates,” he stated.
This situation implies that, eventually, updates for device driver software will cease. Continuing to operate with outdated drivers poses a risk, as these may harbor vulnerabilities that could be exploited. Microsoft appears unwilling to indefinitely support device drivers, leading to a scenario where older peripherals may lose compatibility over time. While legacy drivers may still function, they will not receive updates, as emphasized by the feature known as Secure Boot in Windows 11, which mandates signed device drivers for installation.
Moving to Windows 11
The NCSC indicates that Windows 11 features a secure-by-default configuration, incorporating BitLocker, virtualisation-based security (VBS), and native passkey management. While some of these capabilities were present in Windows 10, they are now activated by default. The NCSC warns that devices failing to meet Windows 11’s hardware requirements remain fundamentally exposed to security threats.
Among the advantages of transitioning to Windows 11 is the integration of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly in Copilot+ PCs. Gartner forecasts that AI PCs will account for 31% of the global PC market by the end of 2025, with shipments expected to reach 77.8 million units. By 2026, Gartner anticipates that 40% of software providers will prioritize AI capabilities directly on PCs, a significant increase from 2% in 2024.
As interest in ARM-based hardware grows for AI inference workloads on Windows 11, Microsoft asserts that ARM-based PCs offer impressive battery life. Gartner’s research suggests that ARM laptops will capture a larger share of the consumer market compared to the business sector, as compatibility issues are resolved. Business users, however, still favor x86 PCs for running Windows, with projections indicating that x86 will constitute 71% of the AI business laptop market by 2025, while ARM will represent 24%.
Atwal notes, “Businesses are evaluating ARM-based PCs to understand if it is a viable platform. The issue is that not all of the applications they need run on ARM at the moment, although the large majority of applications are ARM-compatible.” Microsoft has indicated that applications must be rebuilt for native operation on Windows ARM-based PCs, although those not yet rebuilt can still run using the Prism emulation included with Windows 11, version 24H2.
Looking ahead, Atwal expects more native ARM applications to emerge within the next year, particularly for small language models (SLMs) that can operate directly on AI PCs. This development promises faster response times, lower energy consumption, and reduced reliance on cloud services, enhancing data security for users and businesses alike.
As Atwal observes, SLMs deliver task-specific intelligence, ensuring that AI processes run directly on devices, thereby safeguarding user data. The collaboration between Qualcomm and Microsoft to produce ARM-based Copilot+ PCs is likely to establish a viable enterprise alternative to traditional x86 Windows hardware.
Despite the support for new hardware and ongoing development of improved PC peripherals, Microsoft will continue to face challenges in managing legacy software compatibility within the Windows OS. From an IT management standpoint, this necessitates ongoing planning for PC and operating system refreshes to maintain a current and secure computing environment.
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