In the fourth quarter of 2025, the U.S. witnessed a notable uptick in PC shipments, with a year-on-year increase of 3%, culminating in total sales of 18.2 million units. This resurgence, as reported by research firm Omdia, can be attributed to several factors: the seasonal holiday demand, the pressing need to upgrade aging computers running Windows 10, and retailers proactively securing inventory ahead of anticipated supply chain challenges stemming from the ongoing chip shortage.
Market Dynamics and Growth Drivers
The overall growth of the PC market in 2025, also at 3%, helped to counterbalance the lackluster performance observed in the two preceding quarters. Keiren Jessop, Omdia’s Research Manager, noted that “Q4 marked a meaningful inflection point for the U.S. PC market. After two quarters of year-on-year decline, the market returned to growth driven by solid performances across both the consumer and commercial segments.”
Within the commercial sector, shipments surged by 6%, reaching 8.2 million units. This marked the fourth consecutive quarter of annual growth, propelled by holiday spending and a strategic shift towards more affordable product offerings. Additionally, enterprises continued their migration to Windows 11, particularly as they approached the end-of-support deadline for Windows 10 in October.
Challenges Ahead
Despite this positive momentum, the outlook for 2026 appears more challenging. Omdia predicts a contraction of 13% in PC shipments, largely due to rising costs associated with RAM and storage, which are expected to escalate by an additional 60%. Furthermore, reports indicate that both Intel and AMD are experiencing CPU shortages, leading to increased order lead times that could extend up to six months.
The entry-level PC market is anticipated to bear the brunt of these shortages, with some analysts suggesting it may face significant challenges, potentially diminishing by 2028. In a surprising twist, the recent launch of a new PC model priced at 9 (or 9 with an education discount) has caught the industry off guard, reflecting the evolving landscape of consumer expectations and pricing strategies.
While the overall shipment numbers are set to decline, the value of the market is projected to rise due to price increases driven by supply constraints. Looking ahead, Omdia forecasts a rebound in 2027, with shipments expected to grow by 7% to exceed 66 million units, although this figure remains below the 71.5 million units recorded in 2025.
