As the clock ticks down to the end of Windows 10 support, the transition to Windows 11 has emerged as a significant driving force in the PC market, igniting a wave of hardware refreshes and upgrades. This routine operating system update has catalyzed a surprisingly robust year for global PC shipments, which have seen a notable uptick. Preliminary data from IDC indicates that in the third quarter of 2025, global PC shipments surged nearly 10% year-on-year, totaling 75.8 million desktops, notebooks, and workstations—a figure not witnessed in recent times. Meanwhile, Omdia’s figures, while slightly lower at 72 million units and a 6.8% growth, convey a similar sentiment: the PC market is regaining its footing.
A Race Against the Clock
The impending October 14 deadline, marking Microsoft’s official cessation of support for its decade-old operating system, has transformed into an industry-wide countdown, compelling users to refresh their machines or risk obsolescence. “While the entire market is continuing on a very strong year, fueled by the Windows 11 transition and the need to replace an ageing installed base, the results by regions are telling different stories,” noted Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC’s research vice president for mobile device trackers.
Despite the urgency, the transition has not been without its challenges. In spite of extensive marketing campaigns, webinars, and partner discounts, a significant portion of the global PC population remains entrenched in the past. Omdia’s research director, Ishan Dutt, remarked that while demand for upgrades remains “healthy,” millions of users—both businesses and consumers—continue to operate on Windows 10 or utilize hardware too outdated for Windows 11. A September 2025 survey of 453 PC channel partners highlighted this dilemma: only 39% reported that nearly all their customers had upgraded, while 18% acknowledged that their clients plan to stick with Windows 10 even after support concludes, opting instead for Microsoft’s paid Extended Security Updates to extend their timeline.
Market Dynamics
Nevertheless, momentum is building, albeit unevenly across regions. The Asia-Pacific area, particularly Japan and China, has emerged as a standout performer. Japan’s impressive growth can be attributed to large-scale refresh initiatives linked to both the GIGA education project and the impending Windows 10 deadline. In other parts of Asia, growth has been steadier, albeit tempered by macroeconomic challenges and slower adoption rates. As IDC’s Maciek Gornicki observed, there are “pockets of opportunity from hardware refreshes of devices purchased during and before the COVID-19 pandemic,” yet uneven conditions are causing some buyers to exercise caution.
In North America, the momentum remains relatively subdued. Although the desire to upgrade is palpable, economic uncertainty and the lingering effects of import tariffs have led many companies to postpone bulk purchases. Analysts predict that much of this pent-up demand will likely carry over into 2026, particularly among businesses still reliant on aging systems that are incompatible with Windows 11.
Vendors’ Performance
Amidst this varied landscape, major players are reaping the benefits. Lenovo continues to lead the pack, shipping 19.4 million units in the third quarter—a remarkable 17% increase from the previous year. HP follows closely with 15 million units, also achieving double-digit growth. Dell, however, has experienced more modest gains, reflecting slower enterprise refresh cycles. Apple has maintained its upward trajectory, with a 13.7% increase in shipments driven by its M3 MacBooks and growing professional adoption, while ASUS rounded out the top five with an 11% rise. Collectively, these companies accounted for nearly three-quarters of the entire PC market in Q3.
The Rise of the AI PC
Beyond software updates, the current upgrade cycle has reignited competition in the high-performance market, with recent silicon announcements underscoring the aggressive strategies of each company. Qualcomm has recently introduced the Snapdragon X2 Elite, a refreshed flagship chipset aimed at infusing mobile efficiency into premium laptops. Intel has followed suit with its next-generation Core Ultra processors, codenamed Panther Lake, which promise enhanced performance and smarter power management. With the demand for AI capabilities on the rise, these chipmakers are embedding artificial intelligence directly into their devices.
This shift is ushering in what the industry is dubbing the “AI PC” phase, wherein laptops and desktops will be capable of running generative AI and language models locally, rather than relying solely on cloud services. This concept, which has lingered on the periphery of industry discussions, is poised to gain traction in 2026, with expectations that CES 2026 will showcase a plethora of on-device AI demonstrations, new product lines, and sleek designs aimed at persuading consumers that this upgrade cycle transcends mere currency—it represents a leap into a new era of computing.
The resurgence of the PC market in Q3 is part of a broader reset, spurred by the most significant software transition in a decade, innovative chip architectures, and the promise of AI integration across devices. With millions of businesses still clinging to Windows 10, the upcoming quarters will serve as a litmus test for how swiftly the industry can transform urgency into tangible sales, and whether this momentum can sustain itself into 2026.
